Katie Shiko
speaker
45 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard May 2012
last heard Jun 2012
Katie Shiko’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
Well, if we start by knowing that Catherine's boss has booked a holiday in Spain, then we want to find out what's the chance that Catherine goes along and books a holiday in the same place at the same time.
If we assume that they're independent events...
Then the chance that Catherine books a holiday on the same week as her boss is about one in seven because they both want to choose a nice sunny summer holiday and they both want a cheap holiday.
They don't have children, so they're going to avoid the school holidays.
So we're looking at seven weeks in which they could book their holidays.
On top of the chance of choosing the same time, we've got to look at choosing the same place.
Brits generally are still choosing Spain as their most popular holiday destination.
There's about one third chance of Catherine choosing Spain as her holiday destination.
So the chance that she both chooses the same week and Spain are one in 20.
This travel agent sends 800,000 people a year to Spain, and of the people they send to Spain, they send 20,000 to Magaluf, the resort where Catherine was caught red-handed.
So the relative probability that a person selects Magaluf as a destination, given that they've selected Spain, is 0.025.
It's about 2 in 100.
So the chance of Catherine selecting Magaluf, all other things being equal, are about 8 in 1,000.
And the chance that she selects the same week and Magaluf is about one in a thousand.
Now, that's if we'd assumed all along that the events of Catherine choosing Magaluf and her boss choosing Magaluf are independent events.
But of course, they're not going to be independent.
They use the same travel agent.
They use the same travel agent shop.
At any one time, a travel agent will have the same best deal on offer.
So if two people walk into the same travel agents within a similar period of time and ask for similar holiday requirements, it's very likely that they're going to be offered the same holiday.
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