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Keith Rabois

👤 Person
820 total appearances
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Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

Yeah, so I think... First of all, I think there's a long time before this becomes a commercial product or application of any sort. So, you know, it's great that they're taking money, but think about it as like almost like Stanford takes money or the US government funds basic research in some ways. This is at least a decade out kind of thing.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

Yeah, so I think... First of all, I think there's a long time before this becomes a commercial product or application of any sort. So, you know, it's great that they're taking money, but think about it as like almost like Stanford takes money or the US government funds basic research in some ways. This is at least a decade out kind of thing.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

There's another, I mean, this area way beyond my expertise, but I've been talking to a lot of smart people because I do do financial services innovation. And obviously encryption is pretty critical, whether it's Bitcoin or other places. And there's a couple of concerns. One is it's not even clear that you can verify that this is true, by the way.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

There's another, I mean, this area way beyond my expertise, but I've been talking to a lot of smart people because I do do financial services innovation. And obviously encryption is pretty critical, whether it's Bitcoin or other places. And there's a couple of concerns. One is it's not even clear that you can verify that this is true, by the way.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

Like standard computing, to explain sort of the magnitude of difference, standard computing would take 10 to the 25th years to verify that Google analysis is accurate. So there's a chance that it's not even true.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

Like standard computing, to explain sort of the magnitude of difference, standard computing would take 10 to the 25th years to verify that Google analysis is accurate. So there's a chance that it's not even true.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

And then to be practical, like, so assuming you solve all this and it's accurate and blah, blah, blah, you make it fast and all that. Second, then, there is the post-quantum computing encryption, which, you know, a lot of people, a lot of things, a lot of important things have switched over to. So you have historical communications, right?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

And then to be practical, like, so assuming you solve all this and it's accurate and blah, blah, blah, you make it fast and all that. Second, then, there is the post-quantum computing encryption, which, you know, a lot of people, a lot of things, a lot of important things have switched over to. So you have historical communications, right?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

that were encrypted under an old paradigm that would be vulnerable. And every year that goes by, the embarrassment level or the threatening level of old historical communications will probably have some decay function or some half-life. So if it takes another 10 years, communications that were drafted 20 years ago, yeah, there'll be some embarrassing things and blah, blah, blah, blah.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

that were encrypted under an old paradigm that would be vulnerable. And every year that goes by, the embarrassment level or the threatening level of old historical communications will probably have some decay function or some half-life. So if it takes another 10 years, communications that were drafted 20 years ago, yeah, there'll be some embarrassing things and blah, blah, blah, blah.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

But the more time it takes, the more safe private communications and exchanges will be. So I think that's positive. Third, is there's a question of order of magnitude here. You mentioned you need like three orders of magnitude sort of improvement. Is each step function, you know, incrementally easier and faster or is each step function, you know, 10 years?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

But the more time it takes, the more safe private communications and exchanges will be. So I think that's positive. Third, is there's a question of order of magnitude here. You mentioned you need like three orders of magnitude sort of improvement. Is each step function, you know, incrementally easier and faster or is each step function, you know, 10 years?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

And I don't know that anybody knows the answer to that.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

And I don't know that anybody knows the answer to that.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

Not yet. We have looked at KB, talking about technology forward VCs. Over the years, I've sat through partner presentations, and we've never really pulled the trigger. There's other reasons, including even if you have quantum computing, you have to rewrite software on top of it. It's a completely different world.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

Not yet. We have looked at KB, talking about technology forward VCs. Over the years, I've sat through partner presentations, and we've never really pulled the trigger. There's other reasons, including even if you have quantum computing, you have to rewrite software on top of it. It's a completely different world.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

So you're starting from scratch. So you have an application layer, which might be actually an interesting business opportunity.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

So you're starting from scratch. So you have an application layer, which might be actually an interesting business opportunity.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

Yeah. Who's going to write the basic? Who's going to write like the Microsoft basic?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Trump's Cabinet, Google's Quantum Chip, Apple's Flop, TikTok, State of VC with bestie Keith Rabois

Yeah. Who's going to write the basic? Who's going to write like the Microsoft basic?