Ken Fisher

speaker

93 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Dec 2017 last heard Dec 2017

Ken Fisher’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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WSJ Your Money Briefing · Why We Shouldn't Call This Market Run-Up a 'Trump Rally' · 14 Dec 2017 podcast

along.

You're completely right.

Because the nature of capital markets is not about the linearity of real growth, but the non-linearity of shifts in sentiment.

And the shifts in sentiment are what drive markets.

Markets pre-price the next three to 30 months.

So if we're going to have growth out there a year and two into the future, the market's pricing it already.

Literally, if you look at the conference board's leading indicator series, not only in America, but all around the developed world, the stock market is always one of the 10 components, and it's one of the very best components, and it's always been a component because the stock market is a very good leading indicator.

Let me say first, a correction can come at any time for any reason or no reason at all.

All you need is a crazy story, sort of like someone yelling fire in a crowded movie theater.

Doesn't mean the movie gets any less watched in the long term, but everybody might run out for a while.

Secondarily, the normal course of a bull market, a la John Templeton's famous phraseology, was bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.

Normally, the first third and the back third of a bull market together make up about 80% of the total return.

In the middle, it's more tepid.

We went through that tepid period leading up into 2016 and have started to accelerate.

And that acceleration has also turned into the flip where instead of years before where U.S.

led foreign, foreign is now leading U.S.

for a series.

I think that continues.

But the bull market should continue until we hit euphoria.

And those worries about overbought, usually once you hit euphoria, people stop worrying.

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