Ken Wattret

speaker

312 appearances 3 recordings 1 series first heard Jun 2026 last heard 11 Jul

Ken Wattret’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 3 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 2.

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The Decisive Podcast: Insights and analysis to empower confident decision-making. · The Age of Agility: Midyear Signals for 2026 · 27 Jun 2026 podcast

Now that being said, we also have to differentiate between the aggregate impact on an economy and sector specific impact.

So if the US can be a net beneficiary of an oil shock.

But retail spending, for example, would still feel the negative effects of higher inflation on household real incomes.

We also need to think about how economies were faring before the conflict, because now some of the concerns related to what's been happening in the Middle East are diminishing with oil prices coming down, an agreement between the US and Iran having been reached.

So thinking about differences that

There in Western Europe, for example, many of the largest economies were really struggling to generate growth before the conflict began due to a range of factors, many of which were quite structural, including poor competitiveness.

And so at the onset of the conflict, we again were highlighting the potential vulnerability of some of those larger Euro area member states and also the UK economy.

Being potentially tipped into recession.

And what we've seen in the period since from our PMI data, which is a very timely indicator of momentum, including for growth, is that those economies do look like they're heading to periods of real GDP contraction, albeit so far relatively modest.

So there's a whole range of different things that we need to look at.

But on the basis of the supply shock in all

oil, there are certain countries which are more vulnerable.

As those potential risks diminish, some of those countries may start to come back a little.

But we're currently in a kind of pivot point, I think, for how this conflict and its various effects evolve.

So we have to keep a close eye on obviously the nature of the agreement, how

quickly oil oil flows can resume in the Strait of Hamud and some broader issues including inflationary pressures, monetary policy responses, and so on.

Well again, I think there are different ways to think about this from an economic perspective.

One is to look at the different influences on different types of expenditure.

So again, a key effect typically of an oil supply shock is a squeeze on households' real incomes due to rising inflation and other things equal, that would typically lead to lower consumer spending growth.

If we think about the pillars of resistance in relation

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