Ken Wattret
speaker
312 appearances
3 recordings
1 series
first heard Jun 2026
last heard 11 Jul
Ken Wattret’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 3 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 2.
Appearances
And the short conclusion in our base case is that it will carry on.
Though having said that, we've been revising down our global real GDP growth forecast since February quite markedly, and we're now predicting the weakest annual growth rate since the global financial crisis, if we exclude 2020's pandemic-related drop.
So we're talking about a global growth rate probably below two and a half percent, which doesn't sound that bad at face value, but that is unusually weak.
Now, in terms
In terms of how we assess whether we could move from expansion to contraction, global recessions generally are quite rare, but we can use our global link model to try and run alternative scenarios to see how likely that outcome would be.
And if we take a very adverse scenario of protracted high energy prices, supply shortfalls, broad
Broad-based inflationary effects, widespread central bank rate hikes, and probably as a result, major corrections in asset prices, then the expansion.
would probably be derailed.
That's not our base case, but it could be if the conflict and the related disruptions are very protracted.
So we can use that modeling expertise to try and look at this the types of circumstances that would lead us to a global recession.
It would certainly appear to be the case if we took twenty twenty five as an example.
We had continual uncertainty over US trade policy, numerous rounds of tariff announcements, worries about tit for tat retaliations, most measures of trade policy uncertainty were at extreme levels.
We'd never seen anything like it before.
And yet global economic growth surprised to the upside.
And the happen
been lots of different shocks that economies have had to adjust to over recent years.
Now, one could argue in the case of the tariffs, one of the reasons why global growth remained quite robust was that there was a kind of rowing back from the tit for tat escalations.
The US administration announced a lot of changes and then backed away from those.
So you could argue that the bark was west and the bite in the end.
And so those announcements were having a progressively diminished effect.
Showing 101–120 of 312 · page 6 of 16
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