Kevin Hassett
speaker
2,195 appearances
192 recordings
16 series
first heard Jun 2025
last heard 10 Aug
Kevin Hassett’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 154 in all, peaking in May 2026 with 38.
Appearances
So we expect that the global economy is going to have a big positive shock as soon as this is over.
And we're still being briefed that it would be four to six weeks from the beginning and that we're ahead of schedule.
Yeah, there are a few.
First of all, we had the crazy weather in February.
The worst of it was actually outside of the survey week, but there was a lot of lingering junk, as you might recall, with the ice that was everywhere.
We had some strikes on the West Coast that knocked off between 30 and 40,000 jobs.
And so I think that on net, it's almost like a wash number.
And the final thing is that there's a new procedure, birth death model at the BLS, which we believe is going to make the number more volatile.
And so I think more and more we're going to have to average through the months.
And remember, we had a really surprisingly positive number last month.
And I think if you average the two, then it's about at the rate of job growth that's consistent with three or four percent GDP growth.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I think that right now what's going to happen, right, is that the variability in the data will be apparent to folks.
And so what's going to happen, I think, is that there'll be some anxiety that another number like this or two or three numbers like this is ahead for us.
But we really don't believe that because, as you and I have discussed, like every other indicator is consistent with very strong GDP growth right now.
And so this really is an outlier number.
Well, our expectation is that we've got our eyes on the horizon, that we know that sometime soon we're going to have a much more stable Venezuela with high stable energy output, a much more stable Iran with high and stable energy output, which is going to be very good not only for energy markets, but for risk premia around the world.
Don't forget that this move against Iran is happening because they've promised to destroy us all.
If that's not something that affects risk preview, I don't know what is.
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