Kevin Hassett
speaker
2,210 appearances
195 recordings
16 series
first heard Oct 2024
last heard 10 Aug
Kevin Hassett’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 154 in all, peaking in May 2026 with 38.
Appearances
That was somewhat of a surprise to me, how big it was, because I again thought that what you might see is like price adjustments and so on by the inelastic suppliers, and then the consumers wouldn't really see much
price increase.
But I think one of the things we're seeing is a massive onshoring of activity unlike anything I've ever seen.
So I think that it's really been a very net positive policy, despite what sort of conventional economics has been teaching us since we went back to the textbooks when I was in grad school.
Well, I think it will depend on... It's a product-by-product kind of analysis, and I think that it's still work in progress to figure out what the final story is.
But again, we've got high growth and no pickup in inflation.
I think that the Wall Street folks, or a lot of Wall Street folks who I respect and read in the spring, were saying that we're going to have stagflation, that we're going to have 4% or 5% inflation because of the tariffs and no growth.
And so I think that...
allocating like the current state of the economy and the impact of tariffs on it from people who told us that we'd have a recession with high inflation with those models is probably not the best thing to do.
Well, I think it's actually quite a mistake to look at 100 years of history to learn about today's situation.
To do that, you're making an underlying assumption of what econometricians call ergodicity, the idea that the data generating process is the same over time so that you can identify it in this period and then use your knowledge to think about the next period.
I think that 100 years ago, if you wanted to move production from one place to another, it was almost impossible.
you'd have to get it on the Queen Mary or something and move it around.
And now it's really, really easy.
100 years ago, I guess we didn't have a telephone.
Or maybe we just started to have a telephone.
But now we've got the internet and we've got AI helping us decide how to move stuff around.
We've got a capital spending boom that would have been impossible 100 years ago.
And so I don't think that...
Yeah, I don't think that history in this case is going to be that useful because it's clearly a point where the assumption of ergodicity is not going to apply.
Showing 1361–1380 of 2,210 · page 69 of 111
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