Kevin Hassett
speaker
2,210 appearances
195 recordings
16 series
first heard Oct 2024
last heard 10 Aug
Kevin Hassett’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 154 in all, peaking in May 2026 with 38.
Appearances
And against that backdrop, I think that the open question is, how do we have high growth and then less growth in employment than we expected?
And I think that the tariff could be part of the story, but I think that that probably is a very small part of the story.
In fact, it was like the best quarter ever.
I don't mean to cut you off, but I just want to highlight
how important what you just said is.
And the way to think about it is that trade is about 15% of the economy.
And the rest of it's like 85% of the economy.
And so you could do a lot of stuff in trade that has effects on the trade space that is completely overwhelmed by the 85%.
And 85% of the economy is getting this massive productivity change.
And it'd be hard for a large change to 85% to not overwhelm something you did to the 15%.
It could be that.
Also, don't forget that there's been a big reduction in illegal immigration and employment from that aspect.
And so the population growth is pretty low compared to what it was when we had tens of millions of people crossing the border.
And so the break-even jobs number for the payroll survey is, people think is down like quite a bit to maybe around 40 or 50,000.
Well, I was 40, 50, you were 30, 60.
I think we kind of were about the same range, right?
And so that's like another thing that we could have big increases in productivity and big increases in output and a healthy labor market with job numbers like the one that you forecasted.
And we'll see whether you're right or not.
I'm saying that... It's not 100.
That's enough to sort of keep up with the population.
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