Kevin Rudd
speaker
641 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 14 Jul
Kevin Rudd’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
And if the existing Democratic Progress Party...
which is anathema to Xi Jinping gets reelected.
It'll be for its fourth term, and it has run consistently on a, shall we say, independence-leaning platform.
Will they get reelected in January 28?
I don't know, but I think it's a 50-50 possibility.
Does this therefore become a trigger for Xi Jinping to say enough is enough?
Open question, given he would just been reappointed as general secretary of the party the previous October, November.
And he's aware that 2028 is a presidential election year here in the United States and
What do I fear?
A miscalculation by Xi Jinping about the level of American resolve.
Do they, the Chinese, conclude post-Iran, for example, that the likelihood of any American leadership to deploy forces in the event of a Taiwan crisis would be reduced as a result of the Iran experience?
And then there's the more mechanical question, the extent to which the American arsenal depth, magazine depth, capability set has been impaired as a result of Iran.
So my concern as an analyst is could he arrive at a conclusion?
through a bout of excessive self-confidence that a unique opportunity has arisen.
The danger is that he actually miscalculates.
To act against Taiwan would be to cause President Trump to look weak.
And the one thing I've observed about President Trump in the last several years I've been in
The last thing President Trump likes is to look weak.
So I think we are in potentially dangerous territory.
I think the reason why you've had such buy-in to deterrence over Taiwan is not because of some feel-good American emotional commitment to those nice folks over there.
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