Kevin Warsh

speaker

277 appearances 3 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 17 Sep

Kevin Warsh’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 3 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.

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Bannon`s War Room · Episode 5623: Kevin Warsh Addresses Jackson Hole Economic Forum · 28 Aug 2026 podcast

So the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices. matched

So what's our job? matched

The job for policymakers is to capture underlying trend inflation. matched

Easier said than done. matched

We want to gauge whether underlying inflation is rising, falling, or seems to be stuck in place. matched

We also want to understand not just the direction of travel, but the speed. matched

Each of these broad inflation measures have fallen significantly from their highs of a few years ago, but progress over the last couple of years has been more modest. matched

And while this summer's PC and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved. matched

The data also show moderate wage growth. matched

But in my view, in tracking underlying inflation, wage growth has not proven a reliable indicator of future inflation for a very long time. matched

So to try to gauge underlying inflation, I wanna tell you about a couple things I've always looked to. matched

I find it instructive to disaggregate the 199 individual components of the PC price measure. matched

Over the last 12 months, 54% of goods and services in this basket showed price increases above 3%. matched

This is well below the post-pandemic highs of about 77%, but it remains well above the level of 32 in a couple of the decades that preceded the pandemic. matched

Looking over just the last six months, the conclusion is similar. matched

49% of goods and services in the PC basket showed price increases above 3%. matched

Again, this is well below the post-pandemic highs, but still elevated, quite elevated. matched

The recent rise in overall commodity prices also bears watching. matched

What we need to judge is whether the trends we see indicate upside inflation risks. matched

Now it matters, too, whether the inflation readings of the past five years have seeped into expectations. matched

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