Kevin Warsh

speaker

277 appearances 3 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 6d ago

Kevin Warsh’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 3 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.

Appearances

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Bannon`s War Room · Episode 5623: Kevin Warsh Addresses Jackson Hole Economic Forum · 28 Aug 2026 podcast

In my view, the Fed should be humble and never naive. matched

The Fed plays an essential role in the economy and markets. matched

Our tools are powerful. matched

We determine the path of short-term interest rates. matched

And market participants will always try to anticipate what we will do next. matched

But... matched

we should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade. matched

The economic literature has long described the distorting effects, what it called the Hall of Mirrors problem. matched

If markets rely materially on the Fed's guidance and the Fed relies on market prices, we're more likely to be blinded to new developments. matched

more likely to be caught unprepared, and more likely to commit errors in policymaking. matched

Now, perversely, market participants are unlikely to bear the biggest costs of the Hall of Mirrors problem. matched

The most serious harm is likely to befall those without any financial assets. matched

If the Fed gets inflation wrong and judges the economy wrong, who gets the worst of it? matched

not the financial high flyers. matched

Hardworking Americans are the ones left to deal with inflation that's too high or jobs that suddenly appear less secure. matched

So if forward guidance is ill-suited to normal times, how about the new Fed chief commits at a meeting just like this to some explicit reaction function? matched

Surely he could tell us his interest rate path if say the data were to come in hot or cold. matched

Well, I wish our understanding of the economy were so precise as to provide a mechanical, tried and true answer. matched

That some simple function, like a Taylor Rule, could be rigorously relied upon. matched

But our knowledge just does not extend that far, at least not yet. matched

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