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Konstantin Kisin

πŸ‘€ Speaker
9142 total appearances
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TRIGGERnometry
People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

The reason it's a good analogy is because the period you're talking about, industrial revolution right before it, this period where there wasn't this balance of power, where one group of people actually did develop technology much faster than others,

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People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

you did see this extreme asymmetry in the ability to... And so you just had individual European countries, the sun never sets on the British Empire, as you know, just able to take over tremendous amounts of area around the world.

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People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

I mean, the craziest stories of these are how Cortes takes over the Aztec Empire and Pizarro takes over the Incas.

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People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

Truly outrageous stories.

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People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

Like, people should... Yeah, like a few hundred soldiers get some local allies and just destroys this giant empire.

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People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

And even before they get the local allies, there's a story where Pizarro, the first battle he has against, I forget the name of the Inca emperor,

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People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

There's a couple hundred of Pizarro's men exhausted after a huge trek across the Andes.

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People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

And he's facing down, like, 60,000 Inca troops.

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People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

And he wins.

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People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

And interestingly, by the way, this had nothing to do with gunpowder.

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People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

It was just horses and steel.

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People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

Especially horses were a huge, huge deal in battles.

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People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

Now, the reason that...

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People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

EIs will also have these kinds of weird asymmetric advantages.

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People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

Obviously there'll be, let's just name a couple, right?

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People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

So obviously they'll be smart, right?

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People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

They'll be thinking incredibly fast.

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People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

There'll be way more of them.

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People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

So right now, if you just looked at the amount of compute in our brains versus the amount of compute that's in data centers,

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People Have No Idea What Is About To Happen - Dwarkesh Patel

We could do this back at the envelope calculation, but I think it's probably on the order of 1, 1,000, the amount of compute.