Krystal Ball

So it was an utterly predictable that Israel would come in and do whatever they can to blow this thing up.

And it happened even faster than I could have possibly expected that not only did they continue their invasion and ethnic cleansing and bombing campaign in Lebanon, they dramatically, dramatically escalated it.

I referenced before J.D.

Vance talking about like, oh, I think this is just like a little misunderstanding, which, again, total nonsense.

This was very much clearly articulated and clearly contemplated in the agreement for this ceasefire while a larger end of the war is worked out.

But let's go ahead and take a listen to him claiming that this was just a misunderstanding.

So, I mean, you can see the way the sort of choice of race that's up here, both for Iran and for the U.S.

For Iran, they have to decide how committed are we to Lebanon.

Based on what Trita Parsi has been saying, I think they are committed to Lebanon, not just because that, you know, they see them as like.

human beings who shouldn't be slaughtered and ethnically cleansed, but more important, they see the escalation into Lebanon and the attacks on Palestinians as a threat to their own security, because that always means that the thing can expand and be a new conflagration.

Exactly.

I mean, we would do that.

But anyway, maybe the Iranians won't.

Right.

And then for the US, you gotta choose, do you want the Strait of Hormuz to be operable or do you want to let Israel rampage?

And that's the choice.

And I would err on the side of thinking that Trump's gonna allow Israel to rampage.

It certainly seems the direction that they're leaning in right now, but he also watches the market so closely.

We know how much that drives his behavior, not just with regard to the oil prices, but with regard to the bond markets, with regard to the stock markets.

So these are two very powerful,