Kurt Mills

I mean, I think there's some positive tailwinds and some terrible headwinds.

So I think the optimistic news is that the rumored national security strategy coming out of the Pentagon will emphasize hemispheric defense, as you indicated.

And I think there's a way to do that that's very grounded in American history.

The Monroe Doctrine is not some 20th century invention, not some 21st neocon stuff.

The fifth president of the United States enacted it, and it has worked very well for the US to be the dominant and unquestioned power in the Americas.

And it's not necessarily something, surely not something that I would seek to overturn.

The danger though, and we just talked about Russia-Ukraine earlier this morning, the danger is of creating another Ukraine

in the US's backyard.

President Putin made a mistake in his special military operation.

It backfired, it didn't work, he's recovering, and the Russians have moderated their goals.

But imagine an outright invasion of one of our neighbors

That becomes a breeding ground for all of our enemies to, A, encourage massive refugee flows and, B, just muck it up.

I think we saw elements of this in June with the Iran crisis.

These reports are very, very sort of loosely sourced.

But there was indications that the Chinese were planning to do some stuff if the war had dragged on, if it had become a regime change work.

I'm not at all convinced anymore that Xi Jinping is necessarily going to invade Taiwan.

But if he sees his opportunity, it's like anything in life, like with any gambler.

If he sees the U.S.

mired in a war in Ukraine and then opening up a new front in Venezuela.

I think you could see all kinds of intervention.