Liam Donovan

North Carolina is a seat that's been just right on the cusp for so many seats.

Barack Obama was able to break through in 2008.

That, in fact, was the last time the Democrats won a Senate seat there.

It's been a very expensive, very close seat in the Senate since then.

But Democrats haven't been able to get over the over the hump.

In this case, it's their single best seat.

candidate in the former governor, Roy Cooper.

They got him straight away.

He's raising gobs of money.

And just in an environment that stands to be quite good for Democrats, that's a place where the open seat created by the retirement of Tom Tillis, who at some level was kind of run out by the president and his relationship with the president, that is a prime pickup opportunity.

Open seat, good candidate, big resource advantage, which isn't the case all over the map.

I think that's right.

I could argue with a straight face that all things equal, you'd rather have an incumbent than an open seat.

The way things were, like the dynamics with Tillis, he probably would have gotten a primary.

It would have gotten ugly.

So I actually think...

coalescing behind Michael Whatley, the then RNC chair, somebody that has access to national fundraising possibilities.

I mean, it has gone as well as it could go, but it's still a lopsided situation.

All things equal on a Democratic night.

That's the first one to flip.