Lizzy McNeill
speaker
375 appearances
10 recordings
1 series
first heard Dec 2018
last heard 18 Jul
Lizzy McNeill’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 7 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 5.
Appearances
And the trend is clear.
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So that's the big picture.
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Let's get to the 1 in 216 billion year anomaly thing.
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As with Jules's initial comparison, the temperature anomaly we think they're talking about in the Twitter post is worked out by figuring out the difference in temperature on certain dates this summer compared to those average temperatures between 1985 and 2005.
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I say we think, because much of this is not totally clear from the Twitter post.
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We've tried to get in touch with the account, but no one's got back to us.
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Anyway, the big difference is that the temperature anomalies are for specific locations in the Mediterranean Sea, not the whole thing.
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Technically, that means that the statistical calculations only apply to these specific locations too, not the whole Med.
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In the quiet waters off the south coast of France between Spain and Italy, the sea temperatures reached 27.7 degrees centigrade in early July, when the average from 1985 to 2005 was more like 20.
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28 degrees is hot, around as hot as a heated swimming pool for adults.
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Although, just to be clear, the Med does get hotter.
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Anyway, back to the sea temperature anomaly being a one in many multiple times longer than the age of the universe event, Jules thinks he's managed to reverse engineer the calculations that ends up at that absurd conclusion.
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Okay, belt up.
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We're heading into Statsland.
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The first step in this calculation is to work out the probability of any one of these sea temperature anomalies taking place.
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The curve that fits the data points will tell you how likely any future events are, if the context stays the same.
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A normal or Gaussian distribution follows specific mathematical rules, which mean that if you collect new data, you can calculate how probable those events are by working out how many standard deviations they are from the mean or average.
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When he did that analysis with the Mediterranean heat anomaly in July, hey presto, Jules came out with similarly massive numbers.
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But there's a catch.
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The method the Twitterer used to calculate this number doesn't actually match the likelihood of observing different sea temperatures between 1985 and 2005.
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Showing 261–280 of 375 · page 14 of 19
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