Luke Tryl

Luke?

Yeah, and the interesting thing, right, is that the SNP could, and projections across pollsters show that they're very close to getting a majority, but could get that majority whilst being on really quite a low share of the vote.

In fact, it's possible that they get the lowest share of the vote in Holyrood's history for a winning majority.

They're sort of bobbing around where they were in 2007.

So it's going to be that you get this idea that you've got a majority in seats, but you've won quite a small share of the votes because the unionist vote is now split even further with the addition of Reform UK.

And the other number that I would put out there is, you know, we talked about that kind of top issues ranking.

When you ask Scots where independence comes, because entirely right, it's about 50-50 on the question itself, but you ask people about where it sits in your top issues, just 9% of Scots put Scottish independence in their top issues.

So yes, it might be a split if it came to it, but it's not top of mind for voters at the moment.

I think what I would add to that is that some independent supporters would say in response to that, yeah, but for me, the cost of living is an independence issue and the funding of the NHS is an independence issue and energy is an independence issue.

So I totally take your point.

They're not saying it is my number one priority, but I think it probably becomes... I'm not saying you're suggesting it's not more complex than that, Luke, but I think that might be how an independent supporter might answer that.

But yeah, is it their number one?

We are screaming for it right now in this election campaign priority on the polling evidence.

You're absolutely right.

No, it's not.

Although interesting, the first part of what you were saying there about how you could have a good SNP showing in the parliament while having not had a great showing in the actual votes cast actually would strengthen the UK government argument for saying no to a referendum, where in the past, actually, their arguments have been criticised for being quite weak.

And it's been a political argument of like the prime minister at the time just doesn't want to do it.

Actually, this is an extra reason that a prime minister could quote to refuse it.

Well, absolutely.

I mean, if you refused it previously when the SNP were getting close to half of the actual votes cast in an election, if they're down closer to a third, having lost around a third of their support, I think it becomes easier to make the political case to voters.