Malcolm Moore

Lots of people have tried to model it.

It's very difficult to model.

It's very, very tricky.

So people are unwilling to say mad things like, oh, $400 oil, partly because people have said mad things like that before and then had egg on their face.

But also because above $200, who knows how quickly demand disappears.

Ah, yes.

So I've heard different things.

But to reassure you, all of the airlines say, yes, you will.

Well, they have forward bought their oil, or their jet fuel, rather.

They've bought it.

They've paid a price for it.

Now, obviously, there's an interesting question of whether actually it shows up or not and is delivered.

But let's assume that people delivering commodities are going to deliver to rich places first.

You should be okay.

Well, I think that if you want to give credit to anyone, then you're going to have to say, God bless America, because America is shipping so much jet fuel to Europe at the moment.

I think it's shipping half of all the jet fuel that's coming into Europe is coming from the US right now.

So you have to say, if you can go on your summer holidays, you know who to thank.

There was definitely a sense yesterday that something had changed.

Now, obviously, we're going to need to see more evidence of this.

But essentially, what is looking like is happening is, I mean, it's three ships is the good news.