Marius Hobbhahn
speaker
481 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Sep 2024
last heard Sep 2024
Marius Hobbhahn’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Though I actually like my guess is that in half a year or so the model
even with more scaffolding, still cannot do anything that is is catastrophic.
Just because I think the bar is pretty high for catastrophe.
Yeah, like w the kind of thing I have in mind really is multiple hundreds of people dying or hundreds of millions of dollars of harm or something like this.
But so w which is a high bar, but I I would even imagine that will not in the next year or so will not cause
harm of let's say a million dollar in property damage on its own.
Maybe for maybe with mis misuse or something like this, but I don't think it will happen autonomously.
So even slightly less catastrophic or like harm that doesn't meet our catastrophic bar, we'll don't expect to happen.
or
Both both, both.
Yeah.
I I expect that even if it even it was totally misaligned and and tried really hard to do it, I would still expect that it would get either it would get found out early enough or it just wouldn't be able to like break the bank or pull off the scam or something like this.
However it would generate the money in like some illegal way.
Um
And then the other thing is obviously like the alignment training seems to work f fairly well.
So my guess is that there's just there aren't enough interactions that
where it suddenly stumbles upon a misaligned goal that it would actually do that.
Not really.
I'm interested to see when we run the same evals and more evals on the next mile, but we'll see.
Maybe I'll change my mind by then, or maybe in six months I'll be convinced that the scaffolding did in fact make a big difference and I was wrong.
Showing 461–480 of 481 · page 24 of 25
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