Mark Carney

Donald Trump took the whole notion of an American security assurance off the table in any peace negotiation between Ukraine and Russia.

Donald Trump took the whole notion of an American security assurance off the table in any peace negotiation between Ukraine and Russia.

He appeared to be pressuring the Ukrainians into giving up land that the Russians had taken and occupied.

He appeared to be pressuring the Ukrainians into giving up land that the Russians had taken and occupied.

So on a whole range of topics, whether it's security, whether it's politics, the president is simply far more radical and extreme than he had been in his first term. And so this felt very different. Now, in the eyes of the European leaders, it was clear that the transatlantic alliance, as they knew it, is in deep, deep jeopardy.

So on a whole range of topics, whether it's security, whether it's politics, the president is simply far more radical and extreme than he had been in his first term. And so this felt very different. Now, in the eyes of the European leaders, it was clear that the transatlantic alliance, as they knew it, is in deep, deep jeopardy.

Well, you've seen this flurry of activity, diplomacy in multiple European capitals, leaders calling each other. Within big European countries, there are these big debates about whether to vastly increase spending on defense. And across the EU, you're seeing this effort to create a continent-wide debate peacekeeping force, what they're calling a coalition of the willing.

Well, you've seen this flurry of activity, diplomacy in multiple European capitals, leaders calling each other. Within big European countries, there are these big debates about whether to vastly increase spending on defense. And across the EU, you're seeing this effort to create a continent-wide debate peacekeeping force, what they're calling a coalition of the willing.

The idea is that multiple countries will either contribute troops or logistical support or other material. So the underlying impulse here is Europe recognizing that it now needs to take much more direct responsibility for its own security. But the tough thing for Europe is it's extremely difficult. There are very painful trade-offs.

The idea is that multiple countries will either contribute troops or logistical support or other material. So the underlying impulse here is Europe recognizing that it now needs to take much more direct responsibility for its own security. But the tough thing for Europe is it's extremely difficult. There are very painful trade-offs.

If European countries spend two and a half, three, or even three and a half percent of their GDP on defense, that's money they're not spending on social welfare programs. And after all, in Europe, these programs are a bedrock of the compact between voters and the government. And whether Europe can unify around a common defense strategy is far from clear.

If European countries spend two and a half, three, or even three and a half percent of their GDP on defense, that's money they're not spending on social welfare programs. And after all, in Europe, these programs are a bedrock of the compact between voters and the government. And whether Europe can unify around a common defense strategy is far from clear.

Some countries are far more willing, for example, to contribute troops to a peacekeeping force. Britain and France have been sponsoring that effort. Poland, on the other hand, is more reluctant because of its historically tense relationship with Ukraine. Some countries, again, Britain, are more forward-leaning about spending more on defense.

Some countries are far more willing, for example, to contribute troops to a peacekeeping force. Britain and France have been sponsoring that effort. Poland, on the other hand, is more reluctant because of its historically tense relationship with Ukraine. Some countries, again, Britain, are more forward-leaning about spending more on defense.

Germany, while it's changing, has historically been more reluctant, partly because of its history. So the politics of all this are difficult.

Germany, while it's changing, has historically been more reluctant, partly because of its history. So the politics of all this are difficult.

Yeah, and it's not at all clear whether it's going to pull them together or tear them apart. Even if they were to get on the same page, it will take a generation or so to build up the kind of defense infrastructure that Europe has enjoyed from the United States over the last several decades. You can't build... fighter jets, or a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines in two to three years.

Yeah, and it's not at all clear whether it's going to pull them together or tear them apart. Even if they were to get on the same page, it will take a generation or so to build up the kind of defense infrastructure that Europe has enjoyed from the United States over the last several decades. You can't build... fighter jets, or a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines in two to three years.

These are projects that take 10, 15, 20 years. So to become a military power on this scale is not just a tap you can turn on or off. It requires a long-term, society-wide commitment. It's a major, major undertaking, and it's something that the fruits of which won't be even clear for about 20 years or so.

These are projects that take 10, 15, 20 years. So to become a military power on this scale is not just a tap you can turn on or off. It requires a long-term, society-wide commitment. It's a major, major undertaking, and it's something that the fruits of which won't be even clear for about 20 years or so.