Mark Halperin

Uh, being a quasi incumbent may not be great.

Wally's just not proven to be a great candidate.

Cooper's raising a lot of money while he is not.

Cooper is demonstrating a lot of political skill.

Wally has not so far.

And I've heard from some Republicans, uh, annoyance that in a state that, uh,

they could hold that this is probably their best pickup opportunity.

If you look at my reporting, better than Maine, better than Georgia.

And let's see, maybe Watley will get better.

I don't like to write folks off.

Maybe Watley will prove to be a super strong candidate.

But today...

Cooper's the favorite until Watley proves that he can keep up with the guy who's won statewide.

So this is a possible pickup for Democrats, their best one.

But again, as the numbers make clear, it's not sufficient.

That's the two core ones.

The third most likely Democratic pickup, according to all my sources, absolute consensus.

Some believe Maine's a better pickup, some North Carolina, but they're one and two as the most likely Democratic pickups of the two of the four they need to net.

The most likely after that, again, consensus is Ohio.

And Ohio is a funny one to evaluate.