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Mark Zandi

👤 Speaker
105 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

Thanks, Ed.

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

It's good to be with you.

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

That number is.

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

It's a year-over-year growth rate.

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

And so it reflects the problem the Bureau of Labor Statistics had back in October when they couldn't conduct the survey.

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

And as a result, they assumed that

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

no change in prices for the vast majority of goods and services that they include in the CPI.

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

So if you make an adjustment like we've done, like we did this last month and we did this month to account for that problem, CPI inflation is still 3% year over year.

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

Core CPI inflation, excluding food and energy,

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

is 2.9%.

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

So, you know, once you make the correction for what happened in October, inflation is still elevated and persistently elevated.

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

Well, there was no data in October.

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

There was no survey because the government was shut down.

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

So what does the Bureau of Labor Statistics do?

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

They assume that prices for the things that they can't measure because there was no survey did not change.

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

You know, they're very transparent.

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

They said, you know, I have no idea what the number is because I didn't conduct a survey.

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

So it's zero.

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

So that means obviously that's wrong.

Prof G Markets
Trump’s 25% Iran Tariffs Explained

We know that's not what happened.

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