Mark Zandi

Now, you asked about asset markets, the other aspect of that.

I mean, I think asset markets have kind of sort of bought into that.

I mean, it depends on the day or the minute you look at Fed futures because investors are all – like you can tell I'm all over the map and how I'm thinking about this.

They're all over the map.

But my guess is if we look today, they'll be saying no rate cuts.

Their forecast will be very similar to what I just laid out, something like that.

So I suspect that if that's, you know, what we get, then, you know, they should have no, at this point, no more further bearing on asset market stock prices because that's embedded into their expectations, or at least ostensibly embedded into their expectations.

When we started the conversation, I said things kind of stuck to, reasonably stuck to script.

So that would suggest that we'll come close to recession.

We'll feel uncomfortable.

Things are going to feel very uncomfortable, particularly in the labor market, the job market.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see more consistent job loss here in the next few months.

But we still will be able to kind of navigate through without an economic downturn.

I mean, the one thing that's kind of saving the day

is the deficit finance fiscal stimulus, right?

We had one big, beautiful bill act passed last year that has tax cuts for businesses and for individuals.

And the individuals are benefiting from it right now because tax refunds are larger by a consequential amount.

I think the average refund check is about 350 bucks more than it was last year.

And for lower middle-income households, that goes a considerable way to cushioning the blow from paying more for gasoline and

and for groceries.