Mark Zandi

And so if we had not... And that's all deficit finance, right?

So, you know, taxpayers are paying for it.

But if it hadn't been for that, then I think the odds of a recession would have been well over even.

But with that, it's providing enough support at the same time that people are having to put all their hard-earned money into their gas tank that we should be able to navigate through.

But it's going to be close.

It's going to be very, very close.

And that's what...

My modeling is saying, you know, different indicators of recession.

We've talked about it, I think, in the past.

And they're all basically saying the same thing.

The probabilities at this point are 40%, 45%, 50%, you know, very, very close of a recession at some point in the next 12 months.

So, it's... I think we'll navigate through my kind of baseline worldview, you know, in the middle of the distribution of possible outcomes as we navigate through at this point, particularly because...

Hopefully, the ceasefire is signaling we're moving in the right direction here.

But again, we've got to be humble, and I do think the risks are awfully high.

The final thing I'll say on that in response is nothing else can go wrong.

Nothing.

Nothing.

There's no margin of error here.

I mean, everyone's on edge.

If anything else doesn't stick to the script—