Mark Zandi
👤 SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
So –
That's an increasingly vexed measure, but that's the measure I look at to gauge whether layoffs are picking up.
And if they are, I think that firewall comes down and we're in a recession.
We go from less than 40%, 45%, 50% probability to something meaningfully higher than that.
And I'll just say, just rule of thumb,
Weekly UI claims and employment insurance claims are running just north of 200K.
That's fine.
That's good.
Getting closer to 250K on a kind of a four-week moving average basis to smooth out the volatility.
Pay close attention.
Yellow flares should be going up.
anything closer to 300K, we're in recession.
So that kind of gives you order of magnitude.
That's the one variable I would focus on.
It comes out every Thursday morning from the Labor Department.
Good statistic to watch.
Anytime, Matt.
I really appreciate the opportunity.
Thank you.