Mark Zandi

I'm rounding, obviously, to make the arithmetic easy.

That's a $50 barrel increase.

So that would say gas, which was just under $3 a gallon before all this, will settle in at $4.25.

That's where we were headed, to $4.25.

Now, with the ceasefire, we're down to $95 a barrel.

Let's just assume, for sake of argument, that's where we stay for a while, for the next week or two, which is obviously very tenuous.

I mean, the ceasefire, who knows how that's going to play out, but let's just say it does.

That's an increase of $35 a barrel.

You can kind of do the arithmetic.

We'll settle in at somewhere around $375, $380, $390, something in that order of magnitude.

So, you know, well above...

below three where we were, but not four and a quarter.

That's kind of sort of where we'll settle in.

Obviously, it's not just gasoline, it's diesel, right?

That's the other thing.

Diesel prices have gone up even more and jet fuel, but diesel prices have gone up quite a bit more.

And that is critical to things like groceries, you know, because a big part of the cost of getting food on the store shelf is trucking it from the farm or the port.

And so we're going to be paying more for groceries.

And obviously, Americans are already

very upset about the high grocery prices they're paying for lots of other reasons.