Mark Zandi

It's one of those things that just plays a role longer on in markets.

So, you know, for example, we're going to have to pay higher interest rates.

And you can kind of see it.

In the current context, right?

I mean, historically, you might have thought if we had this kind of event and a risk-off environment and people are nervous and scared, the capital will come flowing into the United States, interest rates would decline.

But that's not what's happened.

Interest rates actually have increased.

You know, the 10-year treasury yield before this, all this was below 4%.

We got as high as 4.5%.

Today, we're sitting at 4.25%.

You know, that's indicative of things moving in a direction that's very,

unusual, unexpected.

There may be lots of reasons for that, but one of the reasons may be, I think, that the safe haven status of the U.S.

is under pressure because of events.

We're no longer deemed to be the rock, the place you go when things are going bad.

And we're going to pay a price for that in many, many ways, but it's most manifested most immediately in the form of higher interest rates.

A good rule of thumb for U.S.

gasoline prices, the cost of a gallon of regular unlighted, is that for every $10 sustained increase in oil price, you get $0.25 increase in a gallon of regular unlighted.

So

If we were $60 before this all started, we kind of peaked out on a weekly basis around $110.