Martin North
speaker
89 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Aug 2022
last heard Aug 2022
Martin North’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
What I find is that a lot of the high growth suburbs in and around our major cities is where a lot of the action is in terms of risk at the moment.
In fact, S&P put out some research quite recently to show that there were default levels of around
3% already in some of those high-growth areas, for example, around Liverpool and Campbelltown in New South Wales, or if you want to go down to Narrow Warren, a place like that in Victoria and elsewhere too, plus some regional centres.
So what we're starting to see is the early uptick.
Now, how high this will go will be determined by where interest rates go ahead.
and also how banks treat customers through this rather difficult time.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the banks being more lenient, but I also see, on the other hand, them starting to encourage people to sell early if they are actually in difficulty.
So they might keep the default rates down, but we might see higher listings because people are getting under more pressure.
Yeah, the bank's interested in having a risk-free opportunity in getting out.
And of course, if people fundamentally have changed their financial footprint and will not be able to afford that mortgage, in a way, the sooner you get out while prices are still relatively high, you might be able to sell and get some equity out of it.
Whereas if you leave it and sort of hope in a couple of years' time it's going to magically fix itself, that's going to be more difficult.
I don't think income is going to drive up any time soon, so I think people are going to remain under pressure.
So the banks are definitely being quite selective in terms of who they have this conversation with.
But I'm seeing more of it at the moment.
Their, of course, concern is to try and keep the headline default rates as low as they can.
Well, this is very unusual.
And our economy is behaving quite like others around the world, where we've still got very low levels of unemployment.
We've got very high levels of job openings.
And of course, that's good because it means that if people have jobs, then they've got more chance of maintaining those mortgage payments.
But the question is, will unemployment stay as low as it is?
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