Martin North
speaker
89 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Aug 2022
last heard Aug 2022
Martin North’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
And it's worth thinking about the last sort of 15, 20 years, rates have only ever gone down.
So a lot of people will find this as a big shock.
And I fear that some people won't be preparing early enough for what's going to be ahead.
Great question, because, of course, a lot of the inflationary pressures have nothing to do with local economy issues and employment, as we said.
It's to do with the international economy.
You know, supply chain disruption, the oil price, those things.
So in a way, lifting interest rates is a very weak lever to try and actually tackle the underlying inflationary issues that we've got here.
The concern I have is you lift interest rates, you can squeeze a lot of households.
But inflation could remain stubbornly high because of the fact that it's actually other issues that are driving it.
And that leads us into a stagflationary environment where you have horribly low income growth, high unemployment and unfortunately high interest rates.
I hope we don't go there, but I do fear that the RBA might be a little bit too optimistic in terms of its current forecast as to what's going to happen next year.
I think rates may be high for longer and I think that inflation could be high for longer.
Yeah, the difficulty is there are so many variables.
I mean, you can look at China and you can look at Taiwan and you can look at what's happened with interest rates and the supply chain disruptions.
It really is a very uncomfortable time.
What I think people need to do is to assume the worst and hope for the best.
In other words, assume rates are going to go higher and start planning now for that rather than hoping magically that income is suddenly going to start growing in real terms.
everyone's saying not for a couple of years probably, and magically things are going to turn around.
I don't think we're going to see this remarkable move up reverse very, very quickly.
And unfortunately, that means more pain for longer.
Showing 61–80 of 89 · page 4 of 5
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