Martin Wolf

speaker

495 appearances 3 recordings 1 series first heard Nov 2024 last heard Jun 2025

Martin Wolf’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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NAB Morning Call · Weekend Edition: A new world reorder, with FT’s Martin Wolf · 15 Nov 2024 podcast

And it's very, very bad at predicting catastrophe.

I mean y look at the stock markets before the financial crisis.

Look at the valuation of banks before the financial crisis.

So I actually don't tend to the view that this sort of that money is in

aggregate that smart, but it's very good at seeing short term opportunities.

And and the the the the point is, first the US, as you pointed out, is the strongest economy in the world by far.

Second, if there is a trade war, it will probably damage everybody else more than the US.

That's quite important.

Third, he is going to cut taxes.

will almost certainly mean somewhat higher interest rates, uh, but it will also boost the economy in a big way.

And uh the in the short to medium term, I would bet profits are going to look terrific i in the US.

I'm it's very, very plausible.

These things don't blow out overnight if they are going to, and I believe they might.

But uh so it's I think quite rational for markets

Well

I mean very high tariffs will themselves tend to strengthen the currency.

I mean the the it it's uh it's the way it offsets uh the high tariffs by you know, you s if it was essential law is a tax uh tax on imports is a tax on exports.

And the way exports are taxed in a high protection country is that uh the exchange rate goes up and the b the

the the reward for exporting goes down because any given foreign prices foreign receipts is worth less domestically.

So that's exactly what I would expect.

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