Matt Grimm
speaker
244 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Nov 2024
last heard Nov 2024
Matt Grimm’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsNo recordings in the last 12 months.Older appearances are listed below; set an alert to hear about the next one.
Appearances
What did you work on today? I'm like, oh, yeah, Salesforce APIs.
Biggest lesson from Peter is that there's no alpha in consensus. Peter is famously a contrarian, etc. The point is not to be disagreeable. It's not at all the point. The point is that if everyone agrees, if the consensus is X, then there's no alpha in X because by definition, you were just going to perform exactly as well as literally everybody else is.
So the alpha, the actual interesting signal, the investable signal, the differentiated signal is in being contrarian. And it's very easy to say that. It's very easy to read that. It's very easy to be like, oh, yeah, I totally get it.
I think I would not be investing in defense at some of the valuations that these early stage companies are pulling down, because I think there's a sort of a view of a venture return in some of these companies I think is going to be pretty hard to achieve.
I don't think so. I think Andro's underpriced today.
14 billion in the last round.
I think really what it takes is full-scale production, massive-scale production of robot planes, robot subs, more drones, more missiles, more everything. And we've got a lot of building, a lot of investment to make there. But I think that's really what it's going to take. And then really just continued operational excellence and continued delivery.
It's very Joe Rogan of you. Robo dogs color me skeptical. Robot on robot warfare I think is pretty likely. I think we're kind of already seeing it.
If that's how you think the future of warfare will play out, then no, it's not a fair fight. I don't think that's how the future of warfare is going to play out. How does the future of warfare play out? We're seeing this in the conflict in Azerbaijan in 2020. I think we're seeing it play out in Ukraine right now.
And I think we're seeing it play out with Iranian missiles that they're lobbing at Israel from Western Iran. The way it's playing out right now, you think about it as like, as like a kind of an indigenous kind of like local tribal kind of warfare. That's not what it is. What it is, is that these countries, these adversaries can make these drones in massive quantities for incredibly cheaply.
Iranian Shahed missile, one of the missiles they mostly use.
it goes pretty slow it's just a drone they can make it for in the neighborhood of 50-ish thousand dollars and just incredibly cheap for for these missiles they'll either give them to the russians that then the russians will shoot them with the ukrainians or they'll just shoot them at israel from iran very cheap then it takes us a four million dollar patriot missile to intercept one of those or at best a million dollar ish uh irish missile that um made by saab those missiles
way more expensive. So if you play out and you're like, what is their manufacturing capability of those $50,000 drones? Very, very, very, very high. And then, OK, we have to then launch either our own very expensive missiles, our own very expensive planes to then go fly up behind and shoot these things down. Ultimately, that kind of cost curve and that production curve is not in our favor.
And if you look at some of the kind of statistics out of Ukraine, I can send some of these to you after the show. They're incredibly scary of the amount of munitions that get expended in the first couple of weeks of one of these nation on nation conflicts.
And the US right now does not have the production capacity, nor does the UK, nor does Australia come to the West at large to make enough munitions to fully equip a prolonged nation on nation conflict. So if you think that the war looks like what it did in Afghanistan, then yeah, of course, drones and technology will make it kind of an imbalanced unfair fight.
I don't think that's what it's going to look like though. I think what you're going to see is you're going to see Iranian agitators equipping those forces with these very cheap drones in large quantities.
in a way that then like we simply can't afford to to defend ourselves from in the long run that's where it's going to get super interesting so our whole thesis is about driving down the cost and driving up the production rates of those various kind of defense mechanisms and munitions in order to get both keep up with and ultimately out compete sean mcguire said on the show with that in mind that iran is the greatest evil do you agree
yes and no i think greatest evil probably yes most complex and difficult adversary for the west i would say no who is china hands down i think the mindset of the prc i think their approach to basic human rights i think they're conducting of an ongoing genocide with their weaker population.
I think their approach to free speech, to political assembly, to religious freedom are fundamentally antithetical to how the West values human life and how we think about human rights and what we're on this earth to ultimately do. Fundamentally antithetical. And I think if you look at
both the sheer populations, a very big country, you look at their production capacity a lot, you look at their control of the supply chains that we already talked about earlier, and then you put that together with what I view has been a pretty well demonstrated, at least ambition for empire building, whether that's through Belt and Road in Africa, whether that's through invading Taiwan.
Showing 181–200 of 244 · page 10 of 13
← Previous
Next →