Matthew Smith

speaker

466 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 21 Jul

Matthew Smith’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy · Matthew Smith — Natural Gas: The Next Bottleneck - [Invest Like the Best, EP.483] · 21 Jul 2026 podcast

Well, we can look at Russia, Ukraine.

Gas went to $8, $9, $10 in MCF because we send a lot more externally to Europe.

We've seen various weather anomalies, polar vortex in 14, December of 22.

And those prices have gone to $6 or $8 or $10.

But those have been transitory.

And what we're talking about are structural drivers of demand against a known possible production of gas, and they don't match up.

You pull in a very historic way, starting in 28, to the point where the deficit gets really convex and unbounded.

Meaning that gas prices could be 20 or something like this?

I would hesitate to even put a price target on it, but at $8 or $10...

we think you potentially shut off some of the u.s exports their spot cargoes and they are leaving the border to capture uplift in europe or elsewhere those spot cargoes may not be lifted in that gas is left in the system and we've tried to account for that in our model but the spot cargoes alone can't solve this you would have to get into shutting off contracted cargoes leaving our border

via LNG to really start to mitigate some of this.

And it's hard for us to count on the choice to shut off contracted cargoes where there's some Japanese utility counterparty who is counted on it for its provision of electricity.

there are some clear natural gas producer winners.

Xpand Energy is probably at the top of that list.

They probably control 70% of remaining core Hainesville wells.

The very closely known parameters of rock where we know it to be very productive.

And so Xpand, we think is far and away the biggest winner.

uniquely expand his CEO list right now.

There was some turnover earlier in the year.

They're going through a search.

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