Matthew Smith
speaker
466 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 21 Jul
Matthew Smith’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
Trend
recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
And it's been surprising we haven't really seen any of this yet because 28, 29, the physical market tightens materially depending on where you are.
And the amount of money that's gone into unproven, untested, and the amount of capital being raised for things that really may not happen until 2035, maybe.
That's been surprising, especially as it relates to you got Expand trading at four times EBITDA.
low to mid teens free cash flow yield on a gas forward curve that is complacent to all of the objective things that we already know are likely to get plugged in people are not really willing to look past summer heat or a slight outage in an lng facility right now but in six months we start to see these companies roll forward to look at 28. you can start to see the forward curve
really move up materially.
And investors are not willing to look past near term, appropriately supplied gas market, but they're willing to pay for something in 2035 that is totally untested or unproven.
It's been surprising the assumptions and the inconsistency across sectors and industries we follow.
Make sure when your assets are deployed that you understand exactly what the source of your natural gas will be.
Make sure you have physical supply locked up and that you understand your counterparties and what will likely be very meaningful counterparty risk in two or three years.
And counterparty risk isn't something we've really talked about during the last couple of years in the AI boom.
But when it comes to parties being long and short, something that is moving a lot, imagine being short memory.
a year ago or 18 months ago and finding out all of a sudden you're short memory.
That is what this natural gas market looks like to us, not two years out, but six plus months out.
And making sure you understand the physical provisioning of gas for your assets is important for the hyperscalers and for the buyers of
SimpleCycle and CCGT large-scale plants, but especially for fuel cells.
We are very cynical whether you can deploy fuel cells at scale because there isn't the gas in the system to power those 24-7-365.
And so therefore, we treat them in our base case that I described as backup gen.
To the extent you were to deploy fuel cells as baseload gen, that's only pulls forward and is additive to the convexity that I described.
CEOs and partners on projects, whether you are the E&C company trading at 25 times cashflow, which is a historically high multiple for a engineering construction firm, and your main business is building natural gas plants,
And we may not be able to build or deploy more gas plants at a certain point in 2029, 2030, because gas is much more expensive and you may have regulators asking questions.
Showing 441–460 of 466 · page 23 of 24
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