Matthew Smith
speaker
466 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 21 Jul
Matthew Smith’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
We have had to assign with an outside partner probabilities to all that stuff, all of this stuff.
And so what we've gone about doing is we will start with our base case, which is we'll call it P50.
everything with the probability of 50 or more 50 being they have some approvals they have usually a ppa someone planning to buy power from them under contract you know they usually have some sort of interconnection agreement or they're in process with interconnection agreement
Those are the assets we've taken seriously in our base case.
And so we'll call that the P50 level.
And when you do that, it's about five BCF a day, we think, of very credible incremental natural gas demand associated with mostly AI compute.
Now, importantly, there are multiples of what we are considering seriously in our base case that have been proposed that will consume natural gas.
Every solution...
Today, a six series Bloom Energy latest gen fuel cell will take 150 million cubic feet of data gas per gigawatt.
The market has been assigning a high probability on them attaining two gigawatts a year of productivity or of manufacturing capacity.
And that's likely to ramp to five gigawatts.
There isn't the gas for that unless you take it from something else.
In the extreme case, how high does that number get?
If you start to move it down and say P30 or P0, that number can more than double and be, you know, 12 to 15 BCF a day by the early 2030s if unmitigated.
Contract law, there are rules, there are really good reasons why we're exporting.
And these projects, there's tens of billions of project financing and contracts attached to or associated with these LNG projects.
And as the U.S.
will be about a third of global gas supply in several years, our allies and other FTA and increasingly non-FTA countries are reliant on U.S.
Yeah, let's step back for a moment.
You have to have a starting place for a base case, which typically starts with signed contracts.
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