Matthew Smith

speaker

466 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jul 2026 last heard 21 Jul

Matthew Smith’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.

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Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy · Matthew Smith — Natural Gas: The Next Bottleneck - [Invest Like the Best, EP.483] · 21 Jul 2026 podcast

That's how you get to our 20 BCF a day of growth.

But there are other constraints.

So it's a little more complicated than that.

We get through most of the existing captured inventory of companies in the next four or five years.

And so if you think about, you bring on a new well, it has a decline rate, and each well, as it's stacked on an existing company-wide portfolio decline, and a lot of these companies' decline curves are maturing some, and so they don't have to- They're pretty steep in natural gas, right?

It's steep initially in natural gas, but Expand and EQT and others have such mature portfolios.

The replacement is less costly today than it would have been five years ago.

So when you stack all of these wells based on existing acreage up on these companies, assuming they're going to drill optimally based on the forward curve, which is depressed, and we'll talk about that, you get to this 132, 128, 130, 132 BCF a day of maximum deliverability.

So we are assuming that all of these companies develop the rest of their acreage.

But that's a flow metric, not a stock metric.

That's a flow metric.

What is possible when you use known well performance parameters to maximize production before you get to midstream and other surface level constraints, which we'll talk about?

There's resource.

We are depleting the known resource.

If you were to assume prices go up meaningfully, you may unlock additional basins that are legacy known basins.

We know a lot about most of the rock in the U.S.

There are other known gas basins, but they're uneconomic.

And furthermore, there is an infrastructure to really accelerate drilling and activity in those basins.

To solve this, the constraints are multifold.

So the first constraint is the rock.

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