Merryn Somerset Webb

And that would be the mainstream economist's view.

I'm very far, as you know, from being a mainstream economist.

On this occasion, my tribe might even have got it right.

Very, very unusual.

What about house prices?

Obviously, we've been looking at house prices quite a lot on this podcast and we're fascinated by the real terms decline that we've seen so far across the UK and particularly in London.

And that has positives in that it makes houses more affordable.

But of course, with mortgage rates slightly higher than they were, however affordable they may look in absolute terms, they still become less affordable as mortgage rates rise.

Yeah, yeah.

Well, I mean, I suspect a bit like for interest rates, we might find for a period the housing market tracking sideways.

I mean, it's not just about rates, although, of course, we've seen

many mortgage products just appearing off the markets and fixed rates picking up.

But this is coming alongside and on top, of course, of concerns about jobs.

We've had the jobs market now weakening.

Well, actually, for a couple of years, it's been weakening.

but what initially showed up as reduced vacancies has likely been showing up as increased unemployment.

But a report just yesterday suggesting unemployment might pick up to closer to 6% than to 5% later this year.

That might be overdone.

But nonetheless, fearfulness of unemployment is a good reason to hold off major purchases, houses, of course, the consummate major purchase.

So I'd be surprised if any time soon,