Micah-Hill Smith

speaker
601 appearances 1 recordings 1 series first heard Jan 2026 last heard 8 Jan

Micah-Hill Smith’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jan 2026 with 1.

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Like one fact on that is that you can get intelligence at the level of GPT four for over a hundred times cheaper than GPT four was at launch right now.
I think my number is a thousand actually.
Yeah, like uh my my conservative uh statement is normally like but in fairness, this slide, like I we were actually saying before the podcast right is like maybe six months old now and it's conceptually still correct, but like could actually probably do much on the exact numbers because like the market's moving so quickly.
make something like this.
There are two trends that seem to not make sense together, both of which we talk a lot about at artificial analysis and are very important to developers building stuff in AI.
The first is that the cost of intelligence for each level of intelligence has been dropping dramatically over the last couple of years.
We track the cost to run artificial analysis intelligence index for each bucket of intelligence index scores, and each bucket you just see the line go down really, really quickly and actually go down more quickly for each new level of intelligence that's been achieved over the last couple of years.
So the
rate of that cost of clan is actually been going up.
So we've got that being true.
And yet it is clearly possible to spend quite a lot more on AI inference now than it was a couple of years ago.
We need to get our numbers up.
We're uh we're we're not going to hit a couple of things.
Well, I was like
In a bunch of ways that I can imagine, right?
Yeah.
Um, I I don't think that's that nuts.
Um, but basically the r the reason we made this slide to answer the question, right, is to show that the crazy thing is that it is actually true that we've had this hundred X to a thousand X decline in the cost of GPT four level intelligence on the left-hand side.
And yet on the right hand side, because the multipliers are so big for the fact that even though small models can do GPD four level now, we still want to use
Use big models and probably bigger than ever models to um do frontier level intelligence.
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