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Michael Batnick

πŸ‘€ Speaker
4118 total appearances
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Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

And I think the other thing, of course, is that incomes tend to get revised up over time.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

So the government always magically fines income.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

and the savings rate doesn't look as low as people think.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

It's just one of the things that happens in the data.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

But, you know, it's like anything in economics, right?

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

You have like two different, we have multiple ways of looking at the same concept, right?

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

There's household employment and payroll employment.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

There's CPI and PCE.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

And that's also true for the savings rate, right?

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

Like there's the savings rate that Skanda's talking about, which is really just, I think you would agree, like an income statement residual.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

And then, you know, all they're doing is taking income less spending over income.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

Yeah, I mean, I don't know.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

Like, the Ed Leamer thing was something that people have been talking about for years, right?

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

Like, Ed Leamer was the guy that wrote the paper, like, housing is the business cycle.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

right?

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

Like normally I would agree with them.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

Yeah.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

I mean, that's the thing.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

It's sort of, it's competing for seat resources with the AI thing, right?

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

Like, so they're competing with land, with AI data centers and yeah.