Michael Batnick

So, you know, I think since then, a couple things have changed, obviously.

To Skanda's point, the distribution of risks around inflation have changed.

But the labor markets aren't as bad as they were at the end of last year.

I mean, they're not nearly as strong as they were a few years ago, but it's not nearly as bad as it was last year.

And that's obviously important.

The one thing I would say that has continued is income growth continues to slide.

So at least the growth in total wages and salaries remains pretty sluggish.

And in the context of an overnight Fed funds rate where it is and price inflation where it is, I mean, I do think there are stresses building for the household sector.

And I do think there's probably a limit to how much people can spend by drawing down savings and so forth.

So that to me is my concern.

It's really around the outlook for consumer spending, which I don't think is particularly good.

That is true.

That's right.

Yeah, so I mean, I think that there's, right, like, so to me, it's like, let's try to link like the economic data to like markets, right?

Looking at the savings rate is an actual, like, it's not a good timing mechanism, right?

I remember back in 2005, the savings rate was actually printing negative at the time.

And there was a chorus of bears telling you, oh my God, there's no more cushion.

It's about to fall over.

We kept growing for another two years.

I mean, it didn't matter in the end, but you had to wait a while.