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Michael Batnick

πŸ‘€ Speaker
4118 total appearances
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Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

Like NICS tickets.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

Like NICS tickets, like consumer spending, like municipal government finances, right?

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

Like the California legislative office talks about how over half the growth in income tax withholding is a function of all the RSUs that are vesting, right?

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

Like it's like, that's your meal ticket, right?

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

If you're a worker in one of those big companies.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

Um,

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

it's probably, it's juicing, obviously, global growth, but more importantly, it's helping corporate earnings.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

And that matters because it finances a wealth effect through consumer spending.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

And again, that's not something that is neatly captured by a simple accounting identity.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

So it's almost like saying,

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

Yeah, I mean, residential investment, 6% or 7% of US GDP, but not really because we import all the drywall and lumber from Canada.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

It's a bit, I don't know, I think it's one of these arguments.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

Depends who you ask.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

I mean, there's a lot of vibes too, right?

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

I mean, the other thing, of course, is that the Fed was hiking and

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

That's true.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

And the end.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

But the stock market was still going up concurrently as the Fed was hiking.

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

So it wasn't as I mean, this whole notion that like, oh, the Fed should step in and like

The Compound and Friends
Neil Dutta & Skanda on Why the Recession Signals Are All Wrong

hike to blow this whole thing up.