Michael Batnick

I mean, first of all, I'm not sure that they really can.

But all you'd be doing at that point is exacerbating the stresses in the areas of the economy that you were just talking about, like housing, like some of these credit sensitive areas.

And the key distinction between now and then is that the labor markets were genuinely overheating back then.

There's really no evidence that, I mean, we could talk about, you know, things getting more stable relative to where they were six months ago.

But

It's not like you're seeing broad-based wage pressure.

So a lot of the spending is... It's getting worse at the margin.

I agree.

I mean, it is getting worse.

I mean, even the Beige Book talked about it yesterday, right?

They talked about we're seeing uptick in mortgage delinquencies and credit card delinquencies and agricultural delinquencies.

I mean, I guess, you know, the thing is, like, do you think it's a body in motion that stays in motion?

And if you do, then...

you better pray that the labor markets start to accelerate.

Because if they don't and wages continue to slow, then those problems are going to just get worse.

And so, yeah, I mean, I agree that it's very low.

But if you're a bank, I would probably want a provision for more loan losses over the next year.

Okay.

Yeah.

That's the key difference between now and then.