Michael Batnick

So if we- And we had a lot of pandemic savings.

Yeah.

Well, I think, so there's a couple of things.

I mean, I think right now we're sort of, for us, I think for economists, it's like, is it linear or nonlinear?

Which part?

The slowdown in consumption.

Right now you're basically in a linear, I think a linear slowdown in consumer spending.

Consumer spending is growing about 2%.

A little below, a little above, it depends.

But more or less, that's where we are.

If you start to see layoffs in any meaningful extent, not that we have outside of technology, that'll probably hurt consumer spending pretty quickly.

That's one option.

The other way would be you get a market correction of some kind.

If you just assume, like, savings are stable, like, consumption will probably naturally slow a little bit anyway because income growth is so sluggish.

But that doesn't mean it's going to, like, fall off of a cliff.

You know what I mean?

Like, it's just, okay, instead of growing two, we'll grow…

like one to one and a half.

And I think that's just... What's so unusual about this is that it's like equipment investment.

And like,