Michael Batnick

Has this ever happened?

I mean, I'm sure it's rare.

It's weird.

The disconnect is quite unusual.

Now, I've said this to our clients, and I'll say it to your audience.

How you feel about how this thing reconciles should dictate how you feel about the trajectory of policy going forward.

Go on.

Well, I mean, if you think that all this spending is going to lead to a meaningful inflection higher in labor income and tight job market and people seeing stronger wage growth, then you should be very hawkish.

I mean, you should expect... So if the gray line converges towards the red line, then...

It's not like I think Scanda has a forecast for like one hike at some point.

Yeah.

In the next year.

Forget that.

I mean, they're going to go 75 to 100.

They'll take away all the insurance cuts from last year.

OK, so that's at least 75.

The Fed never, I don't think, really just goes once.

I mean.

But if you think that we'll see that that slowing in nominal wages and salaries will pull down to some extent consumer spending from like maybe 2% to one, one and a half.

You continue to see this sluggish growth in residential investment.