Michael Green

speaker

318 appearances 3 recordings 1 series first heard Dec 2025 last heard today

Michael Green’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 3 in all, peaking in Sep 2026 with 1.

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Prof G Markets · Wall Street Veteran: The Bond Sell-Off Is A Buying Opportunity · 29 Sep 2026 podcast

I don't think that inflation at 3.5% in the middle of a war in the Middle East that's driven oil prices to extraordinarily high levels should be particularly surprising or problematic to anyone.

In fact, it'd be among the lowest inflationary experiences under those conditions we've ever seen in history.

What I think is a real problem is the price level.

And that's what we've talked about in terms of the $140,000 poverty line and the experience that many of your peers are having in which life appears unaffordable.

It's not the rate of change of those prices, it's the level of those prices relative to your incomes.

And the policy that is being pursued by the Federal Reserve

All else equal will lower the quantity of jobs and job opportunities available to your generation while increasing the income that is flowing to the older generation that already has the assets and will no longer need to sell them because they are receiving an increase in income that you are not benefiting from.

So this is unfortunately going to exacerbate and worsen conditions for the younger generation at the expense of the older generation, the exact opposite of what needs to be done.

Well, at the end of the day, rates themselves have to be a non-arbitrage condition around the expectations of future Federal Reserve policy.

The Federal Reserve controls the front of the curve.

If it takes interest rates to 100%, we are absolutely going to see long-term interest rates much higher than they are currently.

Likewise, if the Federal Reserve were to cut interest rates to 0% again, we would expect to see lower interest rates because the forward path would almost certainly reflect a lower interest rate environment.

They are not predicting prices in the classic sense, nor are they establishing them.

That's part of the point that I'm making, that this is increasingly mechanical in its implementation.

The vast majority of people who will tell you that the US government has issued far too much debt will simultaneously defend the hedge fund basis trade, which is functionally a synthetic increase in the quantity of debt that is outstanding in order to arbitrage some of the pricing differentials that are being created

by the inefficiencies that now exist in the bond market.

So unfortunately, most people will tell you a narrative that reflects their morality and their sense that the US government and other governments have behaved in a profligate manner that has almost nothing to do with the phenomenon that we're observing.

These same individuals would have made the exact same forecast 20 years ago and 10 years ago, and in fact did make those forecasts.

Almost nobody predicted the much lower interest rates that occurred over that time period.

and by and large assigned it to quote-unquote manipulation, even as most of the manipulation was actually designed to slightly increase interest rates over that time period through things like quantitative easing, et cetera.

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