Michael Nadeau

But we think it's around 65K.

That's where we think the realized value is going to get to as time goes on.

that's also 58k right now so those two metrics realized price 200 week moving average like that to me is kind of your fair value metric and last cycle we did go below that so that's like a extreme you know those are like extremely good opportunities if you actually go below that but yeah that's that's kind of what we're tracking and

The big question is just, you know, are we in like some new regime here with this new Fed and how's the market going to start to process this, I think?

Yes, I do.

I don't think there's any change from fiscal.

We do have the Trump tax cuts that are coming and that can be positive.

But I don't think there's any major changes on that end.

And right now, the Fed, if you look at just the chances of the Fed, this is like the next few meetings are still Powell, right?

So we do have a few more months to go here.

The chances of a cut

in March, which is the next meeting is 15% right now.

And that's like 28% for April.

So the market's kind of like, okay, there's probably not going to be too much coming here.

And on the fiscal side, we kind of know what to look for.

We've been seeing...

A lot of interesting, you know, it looks like there's been some degrossing, you know, in the Trad5 markets.

We saw gold and silver moving quite a bit.

That's very late stage type activity.

Commodities tend to go last in market cycles.