Michael Nadeau
π€ SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
And we've typically seen Bitcoin act as like a liquidity index in some ways.
And so when Bitcoin has gone down in the last few cycles,
the Nasdaq has followed at some point.
And so that could be the next, the next like kind of thing to drop here that's going to give us some more clarity on where Bitcoin's going.
This is, yeah, so this is Bitcoin versus NASDAQ.
So this is the ratio between Bitcoin, the NASDAQ composite index.
So Bitcoin price divided by NASDAQ composite index.
And it kind of looks like your Bitcoin chart, right?
It shows the cycles, but it's actually priced in NASDAQ.
And the reason I think it's interesting, we did this exercise last week and we looked at gold relationship between the ratio between BTC and gold.
And we're trying to project out, you know, how big was the drop in the past?
And then what could that look like for this cycle?
And then what could the price points of each asset look like if we got there?
So what we're showing here is that in the 17 cycle cycle,
there was an 83% decline in the Bitcoin to NASDAQ ratio from peak to tro.
That's your year-long bear market right there.
And that's the same idea that we had.
This is actually stretching it out a little bit because we're going from the first peak of the 21 cycle, which was in April of 2021,
down to late 2022.