Mike Baker

The more realistic answer is messier.

Everything's messy out there.

It has to do with the way they've been prosecuting the war basically since day one.

Iran's command structure has become decentralized.

Local commanders have leeway under the fog of war.

Well, they may not have the latest orders or instructions, or they may be acting on their own with their own agenda.

So even if Tehran has decided to pause, that doesn't mean that every unit got the memo, and it may be some time until they do.

Admittedly, that's a rather generous explanation for the reason why the missiles and drones are still flying.

The less generous explanation is that the Iranian regime's leadership isn't completely unified, meaning the possibility that not all the relevant players are in agreement with the idea of a ceasefire.

That said, we are starting to see signs that the message is getting through, at least in some places.

A coalition of Iran-aligned militias in Iraq has now announced its suspending operations following the ceasefire agreement.

These groups, operating under the banner of the Islamic resistance in Iraq, have been responsible for missile and drone attacks on U.S.

bases and diplomatic sites and energy infrastructure since the war began.

Their decision to stand down suggests that Tehran's influence is still very real and that when orders do come down, they can have an effect.

The question is how quickly and how completely that holds across the rest of the region.

The final point to make is that there seems to be significant confusion about what the deal actually includes.

Iran, the U.S., and Israel are all describing the terms differently.

particularly when it comes to nuclear enrichment, missile programs, and whether the ceasefire extends to fighting in Lebanon.

And yes, those are major differences.

Israel has made clear its operations against Hezbollah, for example, will continue.