Mike Carruthers

And you probably pay attention to them because, well, people like and trust predictions.

After all, they're based on data, science, or sophisticated technology.

But what if predictions aren't really about seeing the future?

What if they're actually about influencing it?

Because once a prediction is made about your behavior or your risk or your potential, it can start to shape outcomes in ways you don't even notice.

My guest says this isn't new.

Predictions have always carried power, not just to forecast the future, but to control it.

Carissa Valise is an associate professor at the Institute for Ethics in AI at the University of Oxford, and she's author of the book Prophecy, Prediction, Power, and the Fight for the Future from Ancient Oracles to AI.

Carissa, welcome to Something You Should Know.

It seems like human nature to want to predict the future and to also hear other predictions about the future because, you know, it's something.

You know, I want to hear the weather prediction for tomorrow because, yes, it could be wrong.

But it's probably not too wrong and, you know, gives me something to go on.

But, you know, if you want to predict the winning lottery numbers, well, you know, I'm not too interested in that because you can't do that.

I mean, some things are predictable and some things are not predictable.

And the predictable things I think I want to hear about.

I'd rather hear a prediction from someone with a track record of making accurate predictions than to just be flying blind.

It also seems that the prediction, how the prediction is made makes a big difference.

If it's just my opinion, that's one thing.

If there's some data to support the prediction, that's something else entirely.

Well, certainly most predictions, it would seem, a lot of them are based on the past, that what is likely to happen in the future is probably what's happened in the past or some variation of that, but that the basis for the prediction is what has happened before.