Mike Israetel
speaker
1,094 appearances
5 recordings
5 series
first heard Dec 2024
last heard May 2025
Mike Israetel’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
I would have used less had I had another chance to go around. And in the future, as I continue to compete in bodybuilding into my early 40s, I'm probably never going to go much over 500 total milligrams. Because to me, it seems my anabolic sensitivity is so high that I just don't need much more than that.
And north of that, my psychological side effects are so nasty, it's absolutely just not worth it to me anymore, especially with career and stuff like that. And I'm a little bit more known for my brain than my body. And so it's important to Keep higher levels of intelligence. No doubt I've degraded my fluid intelligence substantially from what it could have been. Sad.
I do have one hell of a hedge to all this that most people don't, and I'm going to sound like a total insane person when I say it. I believe it is a high probability that in the early to mid-2030s, We will see the fusion of informatics and biology powered by AI such that we will be able to point by point re-engineer the entire human organism at a variety of levels.
And undue damage like was never possible before. So I never exposed myself to as much statistical risk as would have made an even chance of me making it to like 50. I have a think even chance of making it into my 60s. I'll be in my 60s around the mid 2040s.
And most of the future prediction models say that our ability to contend with our biology will be so absurd that there may not be a line between biology and technology anymore. So to put this in simpler terms, I think major categories of disease will be completely solved in the 2030s. I think aging reversal will be mastered in the mid to late 2030s if I had to take a guess.
And I think that if I make it to the early to mid 2030s, then I'm at longevity escape velocity and looks like I succeeded. If I die before then, I'm totally comfortable with all of the choices that I've ever made. And it's been one hell of a run. And I think understanding...
Your own mortality and coming to grips with it as important as any human person, but especially with the risk I've taken with my body, never surprised me. If I croak from a heart attack an hour after we finish filming this, I won't die surprised. I'll die from a heart attack, and I'll be like, this is it.
And that's to say, not to wave my own flag or anything, don't do shit to your body without really thinking through what you're doing. Like a race car driver. Nobody gets into that car and goes, this is the safest thing I could be doing. What are you, nuts? Nah, but most of them have come to grips with the fact that, look, I could die, but I'm good. And they're well compensated.
It's been worth it to them. And most importantly, they did what they really wanted. Up until recently, that has become at least to me and many futurists apparent that some of us listening to this, probably most people listening to this may never die. Up until recently, that was not apparent. And you kind of had to figure out like, how do I want to live my life?
And some cases require a longevity slash quality of life trade-off. And I made that early. Would I have made it the same again? On the margins, probably would have been safer. But also, there's a lot of crazy shit that they do in bodybuilding that I just never did categorically or tried once and was like, fuck that, that's not for me.
And my blood work and everything was pretty good the entire time. So I feel okay about it. Not great, but okay. I don't know if that makes any sense.
Almost everything. If you're conservative, 60% to 70% accuracy, which is wild because the baseline accuracy is zero. If you're not conservative and you give them a little leeway- This was when.
Throughout the 80s and 90s, he was able to predict a substantial amount of correct predictions all the way through the 2020s. And he was almost the only person to predict the arrival of artificial general intelligence as, interestingly enough, specifically the year 2029. And now there is a debate of he was probably too conservative and AGI will be here by 2027.
In the early 2000s, they did a lot of asking questions of AI experts, people working in the space. And almost all of them said Ray was an insane person. And about half of them said we could never actually create artificial general intelligence. The other ones were like, oh, in 2100 or 2070, every five years that you ask this, everyone trends closer and closer to Ray Kurzweil's original prediction.
He's not doing magic. So early, you said something kind of interesting about You said we start at 250,000 years ago, then we go into 125, then 50, then so on. As you said, things get faster. Progress happens exponentially quicker. But if you plot every single event on human and animal history and geological history, it all plots on the same logarithmic scale. Very, very tight clustering.
And right around 2045, the line's fucking vertical. And so when I make predictions, which are not mine, I'm just parroting what other smarter people have said, of possibly getting traction on almost every kind of disease in the 2030s, this isn't the wishful thinking of a child, though mentally I'm below the average child. At least in my own heart.
This is something that is inevitable based on our incremental understanding and manipulation of the world. It is the most accurate type of prediction that you could make, bereft of exact knowledge, because it's the thing that tracks on that exponential progression. If we're pessimistic about it, we're actually estimating that things will somehow progress substantially less than they have been.
computing power is an easy one. That curve of computing power in the early 2020s, people were like, that's it, Moore's Law is dead. But then AI picked up the pace and it's outpacing Moore's Law like crazy, exactly on the trajectory that Ray Kurzweil was the first one, probably the best to formalize.
So when I'm saying crazy shit like we're going to kibosh aging, we're going to kibosh disease and all this other stuff, it's tantamount to someone in the 1930s peak depression era days to hear that in the 2020s, you can make $16 an hour working at McDonald's. And that in the United States, the poorest people are the fattest. They'd be like, you're out of your fucking mind.
And you're like, no, no, no, it's totally true. I'm in the future. It's totally true. So what do you do for a living? Can you imagine describing to a person in 1930s what you do for a living? They're like, well, social media and they're like, what's that? You're like, oh God, how do we even put this to you? And we're still working in the same physical world. We're really the same humans.
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