Miles McCormick
speaker
21 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Jul 2026
last heard 9 Jul
Miles McCormick’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 1 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
So the key takeaways were initially that it felt growth this year would hold up, would kind of weather the storm despite the Middle East conflict, but that inflation would edge up.
And as you say, this report was compiled before tensions flared again this week, which makes it all the more prescient.
It was warning that inflation
It wouldn't take a lot in the Middle East for inflation to, yeah, really, really kick off again.
We did, exactly.
So crude oil after...
declining steadily for the last couple of months really spiked this week, which kind of goes to show how nervous markets are, how nervous traders are, that tensions could flare up between the US and Iran and we could return to a messy situation akin to the one we saw earlier this year.
The key prediction it made was that we'd see a spike in commodity prices.
I mean, in particular, oil prices, which, as we said, we're already seeing.
And what it said in relation to this was that the reason...
things perhaps weren't as bad as they could have been earlier this year in terms of the oil price spike was that Western economies were able to release significant volumes of reserve oil stocks to help kind of douse the price spike.
And what the IMF warns in this regard in its latest report is that a lot of those stocks are now running dry.
They're at multi-year lows.
So if we have a return to hostilities that curb oil supply again, the world will be less able to counter it by releasing emergency supplies.
So the price effect on the oil market could be so much worse than it was before.
In a nutshell, it probably means higher interest rates.
In the IMF report, it was already predicting that the ECB would probably have to hike again this year, that the US Federal Reserve would probably have to hike this year.
And if oil prices spike, as they might now do,
the onus on central banks worldwide to act to curb the inflationary burst will be all the more present.
So what this could mean is higher borrowing costs worldwide.
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